Serialized Card Prices Post Release

On the Padawan Unlimited YouTube Channel I posted a couple videos which provided an analysis and initial prediction for the monetary value of serialized cards. Before I complete my next video, wanted to give readers a first look.

To recap, for Set 4 Jump to Lightspeed, Fantasy Flight Games introduced a new Carbonite Edition Booster pack tailored for the collectors. Within these boxes reside “Prestige” edition cards for 36 of the ships within the main set. Prestige cards are alternate art cards and there are 3 level: non-foil, foil, and serialized. Serialized cards are stamped from 1/250, which means there are a total of 9000 serialized cards that will ever be produced.

My initial predictions was that we would see initial offerings of people trying to sell up to $3000 USD, but more realistically around $1000, for premium cards (e.g., single digit, special numbers, etc). Then, for other serialized cards we’d see anywhere between $400 - $700, eventually normalizing around $380.

Now that pre-release and main release are done, I’ve gathered some data points (from eBay) to see if my initial analysis was accurate.

• Initial offerings almost hit $2000! However, that was too high for the market.

• Executor commands the highest value: An Executor 12/250 sold for $1500. A 128/250 sold for ~$800

• Average price of serialized card is $436.

• If we normalize and take out the Executor sell values, the new average is $387.

• The sell value range is roughly $200 to $600, if we remove the Executor sell prices as outliers.

  
  

Of course, my data set is incomplete and does not include tcgplayer.com or private sales data, but so far it looks like there is an initially strong secondary market for serialized cards.

It’s good to see my analysis and predictions were very close to accurate (e.g., I predicted average sale value of $380, and the average currently is $387).

I look forward to obtaining more data to make my models more accurate and better predict the market for the next Set!

Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Figure 1: Plotted Sell Prices from eBay